In case you haven’t noticed (ha, ha), 2020 is an election year. With Super Tuesday around the corner and 24-hour news abuzz with the latest polling data, it is hard to miss that we are in the frenzied lead up to a presidential election.

People often discuss what a President is doing (or not doing) for the economy, or what Presidential candidates would (or would not) do for the economy, but today I want to talk about what the process of picking that President does to the real estate market and, more broadly, on the economy. To get some insight into this complicated issue, we sat down and chatted with Daley & Company Broker, Sally Daley.

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Q: In the year before a presidential election, what general patterns do you see from current buyers, current sellers, would-be buyers, and would-be-sellers?

“National elections typically insert some degree of uncertainty into the real estate market because they are such high profile events. Ironically, it would be the policy making decisions on a local level — matters such as zoning or short term rentals - that can impact an owners’ market more directly than would a National election, but the perception is often the opposite. And real estate markets are inexorably linked to consumer confidence.

The impact really depends on the circumstances: an elective purchaser considering a second home may sit on his hands until after the election, whereas a relocating employee may have no choice other than to move when circumstances dictate. ”

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Q: Is our current election cycle consistent with that?

“Yes, though as many observers have cited, the polarization in our electorate seems magnified this cycle, with large chunks of both sides of the aisle convinced doom will follow if their side does not prevail.

Once the election occurs and the sky has not fallen for either side, uncertainty — at least caused by the presidential election — abates and a sense of normalcy returns to the market.”

“Once the election occurs and the sky has not fallen, uncertainty abates and a sense of normalcy returns to the market.”

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Q: Do you see this same behavior in years when consumers are heading to the polls,

but not for a Presidential election?

“The high profile manner of the presidential election - and the giant, ever growing media expenditures behind it and many media distribution channels from traditional to digital — make the campaign hard to tune out.
Definitely more impact from the Presidential election than in off cycle years.”

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Q: Do you think the rapidly expanding popularity of social media affects the behavior of your clients in regards to making a real estate decision in an election year?

“Social media impacts clients in the sense that it becomes harder to escape campaign rhetoric - wherever one turns, there will likely be campaign coverage or ads.

Whether or not that heightened awareness deters real estate decisions is a very tough cause and effect case to make, as there are so many other factors that can deter decision making - like the ever growing Coronovirus concern, for example that

is giving folks pause in making travel plans. So unless you plan to buy where you are - and many buy elsewhere, a decline in travel has a correlating negative impact on real estate. ”

“One can virtually shop,

but few have the confidence

to virtually buy.”

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Q: Do your clients have an optimistic view of the market for 2020 and beyond? 

“I see the same schism in my clients that the nation sees - though Vero leans conservative so I guess I’d say that the majority of my clients feel the economy is going well, growing, employment numbers are good, Vero growth policy is supportive of controlled growth to maintain property values and quality of life.

Without question, a majority of our clients have great concerns over the election of an administration whose policies would raise taxes or deter investment in jobs and business infrastructure. ”

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Q: You work in an area that is a luxury market, but also for a not insignificant portion of the population, a seasonal and/or vacation market. How do you think that changes things for your market in the lead up to an election?

“As you note, Vero is not a jobs-based economy but primarily a seasonal or vacation-based economy. That does mean we are more vulnerable to concerns or matters that cause buyers to sit on their hands, like awaiting the outcome of a national election or exposure to health concerns like the corona virus.

On the flip side though, matters that may hurt a more jobs-based economy, like interest rates, have less impact on our demand, as a large percentage of our buyers are cash buyers.”

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Q: Many of your clients are moving to Florida from a different state. How frequently do they ask you about the local or regional elected officials? Senators? The Governor?

“Clients rarely inquire about local governance, save for fire and emergency service personnel. And again — the lack of concern is ironic, as these policies often have a more direct daily impact on owners.

Buyers tend to focus on cost of ownership, including taxes and emergency services, but governance, not so much. ”

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Q: Finally, If you had a client who had to buy a home or sell their current home between now and election day, and they were anxious about doing so, what advice would you give them?

“Choose a property whose land, floor plan and community you love. Do your homework to discern its fair market value, as the buy is where you make your money - remember, you are fully in control.

Understand the dynamics and trend lines of the community and the city at large, and understand what the typical discounts off list are — and go for it!”

“The best time to buy is when others are on the fence, but be sure to get your fundamentals right.”

“The best time to buy is when others are on the fence of indecision, but be sure to get your fundamentals right.””

— Sally Daley, Broker + Owner

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